Reading through a report on oil. Fascinating. The graph above gives some basis for the supply/demand crunch and some support to peak-oil claims. Efficiency is increasing so offsets a bit the increasing gap, but there it is...
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Anonymous said…
The premier energy blog ... www.theoildrum.com ... one can learn a lot on this topic there.
Yeah, I read it, excellent blog. I posted this as this was a clear proof to me that not ALL pricing was speculation, there is serious proof in here for all-peak.
If that is true then it is further proof that speculation overshoots as it behaves non-linearly. Then speculation is not the devil but rather a random walk around a mean with amplification and liquidity. Liquidity is good.
Anonymous said…
Being a total noob on finance, I'm wondering if world growth will be tagged to how fast the economy can move to more efficient cars/appliances/homes. Alternative energy is still too expensive, but the tech is here for cars/appliances/homes.
On a related note, wife and I went looking at hybrid vehicles last weekend. Toyota has a back order of > 100 for Prius and > 50 for Hybrid Highlander. So, if you want one, you actually have to order them and there's a 3-6 month waiting list.
The latest drama is fun. VW became the largest company in the world, in terms of market cap, ahead of EXXON on a little financial market coup d'etat orchestrated by Porsche. Apparently VW stocks was on the way down, I don't know the details but many Hedge Funds (HF) were short the position. Fine. The price goes down. Porsche starts buying the anonymous float (and probably some private too?), but the point is they build a 73% market share without many people noticing. In the US you would need disclosure after 10% or so. Point is, that many HF wake up and realize that their short position is about to lose a lot of money. So what do they do? those idiots? they short cover all together, which means they buy the stock to cover the short. The stock zooms up, by a full multiplier and overtakes EXXON. Porsche makes A KILLING in the process and has robbed the city robbers to the tune of "potentially $30B". Not bad for a days worth of work. PS: hey, psst Porsche! With t
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If that is true then it is further proof that speculation overshoots as it behaves non-linearly. Then speculation is not the devil but rather a random walk around a mean with amplification and liquidity. Liquidity is good.
On a related note, wife and I went looking at hybrid vehicles last weekend. Toyota has a back order of > 100 for Prius and > 50 for Hybrid Highlander. So, if you want one, you actually have to order them and there's a 3-6 month waiting list.
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