Thursday, September 6, 2007

Houston, We have a central-bank-run!

Judging by the comments, it seems many of you share my interest in understanding the recent economic news, at least Juha does. So I will continue covering that.

Yesterday, my brother Carlos, who works for BNP in Europe sent me this story: Apparently we are seeing a dumping of US related assets by what is speculated to be... the Chinese..

Forget the computer attacks, Asia's sovereign funds dumping US assets would have a real impact on the economy.

Credit and liquidity crises are not new and, when they turn bad, they turn bad. In 1929, the liquidity scare sparked a bank run. Banks didn't have enough cash and were defaulting, accelerating the mad dash and "bank-run" to get your money out while there was still liquidity. Then, the real economy wound up with no credit, and we all know the sad story from there.

2007 isn't like 1929. It isn't an "end-consumer" bank run. You and I are not going to the corner bank to take our savings out. Our confidence in the markets isn't shaken to that core. People are not freaking out yet. Even the equity markets have recaptured most of their summer losses. However, it would be a mistake to discount the close relationship between the equity and debt markets.

And, right now, the confidence in the credit markets seems seriously shaken. Already heads are rolling at credit rating agencies. Banks in Germany are defaulting. The heads are calling for "transparency in accounting" and "pricing balance sheets to market," per yesterday's FT. Meanwhile, the constipated credit markets are still not pricing. In other words, no one knows what the damage is and, more alarmingly, no one wants to know what the damage is.

So the subprime mess has gone nuclear, Chernobyl style, with fallout still to be determined. Meanwhile, the good, if edgy, mood prevails. Hedge funds are raising money, shrugging off their losses and appealing to our greed by saying: "Look, blood on the streets! Don't you want some?" The Quants' models are being re-tooled with a technological zeal that must dwarf the human genome project. Until the new math predictions come out, old skool is back in on the street. Experience is in vogue and experience with a math background says you are sexy. Period.

To be fair, reasons to remain optimistic include small data points such as global growth (+95% in a Chinese index for the year!)and the fact no one wants to see America Inc. default, not the EU, not Asia and certainly not the US of A.

But what are the police doing? The Fed is engaged in a game of "chicken" with Wall Street. The debate is raging over what the proper role for the Fed should be. From a distance, it looks something like:

The Feds: "We won't bail you out"
The Street: "Oh yes you will"
The Feds: "Oh no we won't, wink-wink,"

...effectively setting the futures market bet on "The Fed will cut interest rates."

But many are not so convinced. The Fed's main tool is interest rates, which is a rather blunt tool and many people point out that there is a limit to what monetary policy can achieve in this particular crisis.

Short of buying the debt and effectively setting a clearance price, the Fed is not helping the markets set a price for many of the debt assets sitting on balance sheets. Worse, as mentioned above, many market participants are actively avoiding price discovery for fear of establishing a market price that would be to their disadvantage. Meanwhile the Chinese are dumping assets? Are they the first ones to say "Gimme my money?"

Will Wall Street pay the price? Well, part of it, as balance sheets of the financial players lose their value due to a market repricing of the paper...if and when it happens.

Many point the fingers to Wall Street and argue that Wall Street's greed is the culprit for the subprime mess: burn them and their fancypants mechanisms for repackaging debt! But, frankly, aside from those who originate the loans, Wall Street was just spreading the risk not adding to it. They were a vehicle of risk, not a source. Arguing whether they add to stability or instability by spreading the risk is an academic discussion. There is, however, a certain Robin Hood morality to this mess by having the Hedgies funding the 'hoods.

But really, all of America participated in the debt binge. Cash-out refinancing of houses turns out to be half of what is considered subprime debt, I read somewhere. If that is the case, that right there is a straight link to the economic jugular and a path for the crisis to spread over the next 18 mos. Mainstream America will stop treating its real-estate as an ATM. It is a good thing, but one that may impact growth of end-consumption.

Many on Wall Street point out that the aftermath of the US debt binge was quietly supported by the political ambition of "Ownership America". Much like Communist Russia, it is an ideological place where everyone owns a house. So, fingers point back at the Fed, at Greenspan, and, gasp, at the complacent and slightly goofy administration in Washington. If the damage was politically underwritten, then it is fair that the bill fall back on the lap of the US tax payers. The morality here is that the ideology had economic consequences that now have to be paid for.

Hmmmh, I wonder what the future holds,



pcleddy said...


Galder Zamarreno said...

Further bad news came in today:

Spanish Stock Exchange (Ibex 35) went down 2.30%.

Roy Russo said...

[So, fingers point back at the Fed, at Greenspan, and, gasp, at the complacent and slightly goofy administration in Washington.]

I'm glad you're brushing up on your Econ 101 texts, but really... theres only one place to point the finger, the American consumer.

Lets not blame the Fed for cutting rates and making money "cheap". Over the past ~6 years they've used monetary policy effectively to grow the economy from the caca that Clinton left in his wake.

So the side-effect was cheap money. The banks lent it out to the lemmings and now everyone takes a bath when the lemmings can't pay. Blame the lemmings.

Galder, two fruit baskets and a ox cart don't count as a "Stock Exchange". ;-)

Juha Lindfors said...

The big bad China scare...

It seems as if the world has evolved from the plutonium based balance of fear to financial instruments of war, a whole new balance of fear. Nukes are left for the crazy people hiding in caves to desire, the new financial weapons are operated with much more finesse.

Has China pulled the trigger? I don't think so.

It's not the right time, yet. It would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. They're heavily dependent on their exports and would suffer themselves in the process. The Chinese consumer is not throwing away her hard earned yuan (and not enough of it) nearly at the same pace as her US comrade is.

No, China needs to get out of the development phase first before it makes sense to pull it off. Doing it now would be an act of desperation.

What does the future hold? China's message is pretty clear, they are looking for better ROI on their USD assets. Good for them. But ultimately USD returns will just generate more USD and USD is only good for buying US property, products and services. Either that or find someone else who wants to buy a piece of USA and who produces something you want and do a currency exchange.

China will continue to make bids to buy more of USA. CNOOC story will repeat. China already bought a $3 bln stake in Blackstone private equity. The desire for better ROI will see more US assets move under Chinese ownership because that's what USD is good for. Maybe next time you go to your corner bank ATM it will say "Bank of China" on it (to be fair, even Chinese will understand that this branding won't do too well in US and figure out more discrete ways to buy USA, a la Blackstone).

The politicians will continue to over-react to this and China scare in the press will continue. In that sense it is history repeating itself with 1980's "Japan is buying America" scare. But when you are in debt you have little choice but to see the ownership move overseas -- either its Middle-East or Asia, take your pick. Either that, or US needs to get creative :-)

ATA said...

Fed cut won't make a difference.
Alt-A is the new subprime.
Phrase of the day is "mark to market"
CDO now means, "Close the Door on the way Out"
Buy gold.
Foreigners will start snapping up USA assets--instead of Treasuries. Blackstone was the start.
Buy this book:"The Panic of 1907"
Enjoy the ride!

Marcf said...

In the FT the other day they mentioned the case of this $4B A debt with a 35% coupon that went begging

Marcf said...


you're funny, but what kind of astroturfing name is that?

Marcf said...

Mr Lindfors,

you speak as if it was a foregone conclusion for you that "they" "will" pull the trigger when the time is right. I would hope that their capitalist personality over-rules their communist one here. I am an optimist :)

Juha Lindfors said...

It's good to be an optimist, I am too. For the next couple of decades at least :-)

Capitalist tendency.. hmm... well if you give out a loan, eventually you want your money back with interest, right? That's a good capitalist tendency. And as long as USD is considered to buy something of value, you're happy to get it back as USD.

In 1970's it was gold that foreign countries wanted back in exchange. Apparently your home-country France managed to get a nice pile for herself too. In the 1980's it was land that the Japanese wanted in exchange. In the 21st century... ?

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that China will pull the trigger. I was giving a bit of doom and gloom in the previous post there. I think what is certain is China, along with others who are sitting on a stockpile of USD (Saudis), will keep buying American assets for better ROI (and they are likely to overpay). I think also that for certain China will remind American politicians that the trigger is there to be pulled. It's a good thing to keep in mind when a populist politician comes along with a lot of ideology how all men in China must be free. It may not be a good idea to force anyone's hand in the administration on the issue.

Over the long term I think the money flowing into China will erode the communist power base. Foreign investor money prefers predictability and transparency. And chinaman is no different from the rest of us, they too are driven by greed :-)

Marcf said...

in the 21st century: foreigners want private equity? (by putting together ATA's and Juha's post).

I don't know why the blackstone purchase by chinese funds was such news in the press.

Could it be just diversification of assets with no ulterior motive? I mean when you sit on a sovereign fund, you sit on a lot of money and you are going to deal in most instruments by definition of "a lot of money". no?

Marcf said...


Thanks for an informed post. The panic of 1907 is indeed VERY informative, especially the part about JPMorgan. The balls was to think that they could stop the crisis by themselves, because if you make that bet and fail to un-engage the downward spiral, ouch.

from wikipedia:

The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis in the United States. The stock market fell nearly 50% from its peak in 1906, the economy was in recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. Its primary cause was a retraction of loans by some banks that began in New York and soon spread across the nation, leading to the closings of banks and businesses. The severity of the downturn was such that it eventually pressured the United States Congress to accept the proposal by a group of bankers to pass the Glass-Owen Bill, essentially a blueprint of the Nelson W. Aldrich plan that had been defeated in congress earlier. This bill allowed a group of bankers to create, buy the shares, and own the Federal Reserve System in 1913. The 1907 panic was the fourth panic in 34 years.

One of the contributing factors of the Panic involved F. Augustus Heinze and his bank, Knickerbocker Trust Company. Heinze copied the speculation tactics of Charles W. Morse, who had obtained control of the Bank of North America and other banks to float consolidations and other schemes. In 1906, Heinze sold his shares in Montana copper mines for $12 million. He then moved to New York, bought Knickerbocker Trust and became a director in a national financial chain. Banking industry leaders, threatened by the developing trusts, staged a financial attack on Heinze's Knickerbocker Trust. Their motive was to sway public and congressional opinion against trusts.

In March 1907, over-expansion and poor speculation led to a stock market crash. Money became extremely tight. A second crash occurred in October 1907. This time, the crash was directly precipitated by Heinze's brothers, who had used money borrowed from Knickerbocker Trust in a failed attempt to corner United Copper. In the wake of the crash, Heinze was forced to resign as bank president. On October 21, the National Bank of Commerce ceased to honor checks of Knickerbocker Trust, causing a run on the Knickerbocker Trust. By the end of October 22, the National Bank of North America had failed and runs were sparked on nearly every trust in New York.

To bring relief to the situation, United States Secretary of the Treasury George B. Cortelyou earmarked $35 million of Federal money to quell the storm. Complete ruin of the national economy was averted when J.P. Morgan stepped in to meet the crisis. Morgan organized a team of bank and trust executives. The team redirected money between banks, secured further international lines of credit, and bought plummeting stocks of healthy corporations. Within a few weeks the panic passed, with only minimal effects on the country.

By February 1908, confidence in the economy was restored.

In May, Congress passed the Aldrich-Vreeland Act which established the National Monetary Commission to investigate the panic and to propose legislation to regulate banking. In 1913, the commission recommended the adoption of the Federal Reserve Act, which mandated the creation of a central banking system to dampen the effects of future panics. It was enacted the day before Christmas Eve the same year.

Juha Lindfors said...

I don't know why the blackstone purchase by chinese funds was such news in the press.

Owning treasuries is considered "safer" (although the risk of run still exists as you pointed out) than active ownership of companies, where you can supposedly gain internal information or control of what is considered strategically or militarily important.

CNOOC's bid on Unocal is a good example of this where CNOOC eventually pulled out because of political opposition. Same with the ports deal to Middle East company (Dubai?)

Not necessarily agreeing with the logic above but that seems to be the core of the argument driving some American politicians.

So maybe private equity is just a valid alternative investment strategy, as you say. While the military tensions between the two countries exist, it's not convincing enough for some people with political power to stop it.

On the opposite side, some argue that is in fact China that is putting itself at disadvantage if it relies on assets that are effectively under US legislation and control, essentially "giving hostages" to US. This way you can argue that increased commerce between countries is in fact reducing military tension.

Daniel Brum said...

It's interesting to see this all unfold, exactly as a good friend of mine who used to manage the debt investment team at Bank of Montreal here in Canada. He told me a few years ago - watch out, the US economy will collapse - led by the mortgage sector in less then 8 years. He was off by 3 it seems.
It's interesting that this economic trend has not occurred here in Canada at all. Our housing sector is very strong. Our lenders have had very tight controls on lending for mortgages - no such thing as a $0 down mortgage here. Most lenders require a 25% down-payment on the principal before even considering you. Now I know the problems afflicting the US economy will ripple out to the rest of the world, and naturally to Canadians as you are our biggest trading partner by far. Already, since the dollar is just about 1:1 for the first time since the 60's you are seeing some hit in the export manufacturers - but others, namely the chinese are stepping in and filling in the gaps. They are starving for our lumber, oil, and just about anything else they can get their hands on.

One of the most interesting angles to this whole "economics issue" will be how it translates into the wider geo-political picture. Will the US continue the world dominance in military power and projection of power around the world? Already Iran is showing it does not give a crap what the US wants. North Korea bluffed the US into getting what it wanted. What about central European interests? Will they start making more demands and concessions on the US in trade and other issues?

We are certainly living in interesting times - who knows what things will look like in 10 years.

Army No. Va. said...

Well, my dad who was born in 1923, asked me about moving money out of a particular bank. I told him to make sure no more than $100K in any one bank and to spread it around. Oh, and keep 3 months of expenses in gold and silver buried in the back yard or hidden somewhere. Perhaps a few cases of liquor and cartons of cigarettes too!

Army No. Va. said...

China won't do anything provocative or disruptive until adter the 2008 Olympics.

Army No. Va. said...

Marc, I think one needs to combine the Panic of 1907 with the Depression of the 1870s for what we might see. The Depression of the 1870s was not like the 1930s...much shallower in terms of unemployment, but was a period of asset deflation and many years of foreclosures. This due to the Federal Govt shrinking the money supply of "green backs" used to fund the Civil War to reign in inflation. This time, it will be credit scarcity, increased cost and unwillingness to borrow as much that will shrink "money" available to most people. The foreclosures we will see between now and 2010-11 will be mind boggling (I lived through a mini version of this in Austin in 1985-92).

And maybe add a third variable...inflation of and energy. Fewer and fewer will afford to be able to heat/cool their home to the degree they are used to and personal transportation may well become too expensive for more people.

A terrible "perfect" storm to bring American standards of living for most closer to world standards.

Marcf said...

Army Nova,

you crack me up!

I was thinking about your 100k FDIC insured point, that is the most paranoid thing I have heard.

Well right after the keeping gold and silver to survive. I don't even know what "money" looks like, to me it is a number in a computer somewhere and a plastic card to access it.

I do grasp the notion of keeping a stash of drugs on hand in case of world meltdown. Army nova's guide to surviving credit markets turmoil is guns, gold, and weed.

Marcf said...

US standards of living closer to the rest of the world?

God forbid! I love this way of life!

Marcf said...

You know, the catastrophic narrative is always the most attractive but you have to wonder what real probabilities are attached to it. I was reading the Deutsche Bank economic outlook over the weekend and they attach a 20-30% probability to a recession.

The crisis of 1907, resulted in the birth of the Fed to prevent similar crisis. In other words, i would hope we are getting more savvy at dealing with these shocks.

From this morning FT paper, page 9:

"This game of chicken between wary sellers and astute buyers is bound to end at some point and, when it does, I suspect that liquidity will return to the debt markets as abruptly as it vanished this summer. We will just have to wait a bit."

Which is a very optimistic view of the problem: just wait.

Bill said...

Roy, with you its always the individual's fault. I for one, do not want my lifestyle threatened by undisciplined lemmings. Its the government's job to regulate the undisciplined.

Dan, when I bought my new home I had the same concern as you. Would I be able to maintain it 10-20 years from now when energy prices are expected to soar? I seriously looked into solar but found it was still ridiculously expensive. Wind is not feasible where I live. Imagine if the US had spent the 450B it did on the Iraq war on alternative energy research and subsidies? Makes me feel like a jack-ass for supporting the initial invasion.

Roy Russo said...

[Roy, with you its always the individual's fault. I for one, do not want my lifestyle threatened by undisciplined lemmings.]

Yes, its the government's job to tell me what house I can and can't buy and then bail me out because I was too stupid to realize I couldn't afford living next to the Fleury's.

[Its the government's job to regulate the undisciplined.]

You should move to Cuba. ;-)

Army No. Va. said...

Hey Marc, don't laugh...there were people who lost money in the late80s/early 90s S&L fiasco who had more than $100K in a single bank!

Army No. Va. said...

BTW, according to friends who stayed in New Orleans or surrounding areas during and after Katrina...

US paper money wasn't worth anything to a good number of particular in exchange for food or water. Gold and silver weren't good either - Americans don't even know what those are worth for the most part. Now...cigarettes, liquor, weed, and a hot shower were worth a lot! So was a gun and the ability/willingness to use it.

One friend befriended the people manning the national guard outpost set up down the street from his house - said they were tough on him at first, but after letting them use the shower and they got to know him, he became "exempt" from martial law curfews, restrictions.

pcleddy said...

very bad language and attitude follows. it is not all serious:

just a dude, remember the good times of '99?

shit, i lived on natoma and 6th, i applied to jboss when there were 3 of you, but my skillz sux'd. oh well

Army No. Va. said...

Marc, The "doom and gloom" scenario materializes in the USA if/when we have a long running energy (mainly gasoline) crisis. A "coup" in Saudi Arabia could produce such a scenario. Most other scenarios are milder than that. And there is always opportunity...some people did quite well during the 1930s and 1970s and even 1870s.

Living standards decline for most Americans (not you, or even me to a point) when oil prices rise from $25 to $50 to $75 to $100 to ? $500 (?, I get hit at $500, even in midtown!) per barrel.

Add to it the end of the housing ATM which propped up a lot of get a slow decline in the standard of living for many.

Juha Lindfors said...

Which is a very optimistic view of the problem: just wait.

A strategy that has not failed in the last 100 years or so... :-)

Bill Pyne said...

Living standards decline for most Americans (not you, or even me to a point) when oil prices rise from $25 to $50 to $75 to $100 to ? $500 (?, I get hit at $500, even in midtown!) per barrel.

On the positive side, with all the walking we'll have to do, the US will no longer have the most obese citizens on the planet. Heart disease will probably drop. (Of course, research on heart disease will suffer. Oh well, not everyone can win.)

A strategy that has not failed in the last 100 years or so... :-)
Unfortunately, prematurely attacking a problem, before proper analysis is done, doesn't seem to be working out well right now.

Marcf said...


Dead on. I think people in EU cities or NYC are less overweight because of all this walking around.

Army No. Va. said...

Bill, Marc, true, more walking is a good thing...except for those who live in exurbs/suburbs where it's 4 miles to the nearest store and 30 miles to work!

Luckily, I'm 4 miles from downtown Atlanta and Buckhead and 2 miles from Midtown and within 1 mile of quite a bit of shopping choice. I need about 20 lbs of walking to do :-)

Bill Pyne said...

There was an article I read at least 3 years ago - possibly in Scientific American - about community architecting and how it's changing as a result of obesity. Modern architects are beginning to put commercial and residential back together rather than having all commerce 10 miles away on the other side of town.

An article I read in our local paper a year ago said that 20 and 30 somethings in the US are moving into urban areas again. One reason mentioned is an escape from the need to drive everywhere. I'd be interested to see the results of any longitudinal studies of those age groups in 10 years with regard to obesity.

Cities I've found with the best walking are Boston, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. We stayed at a B&B in the Virginia Highlands - the Gaslamp Inn I think - and found that area walkable. We purposefully chose a villagey area for our current home where we can walk to everything we need in 10 minutes. It's not Boston, but then again it's affordable!

Sorry to hijack the thread.

Rajesh said...

Just when I was trying to learn a bit more about Islamic Banking (thanks to the first ever conference on Islamic investment organized in Bangalore last week) I came across a very interesting article that speaks from a different perspective about the FED. I am not sure how the Americans view this but since I saw Marc getting deeper into issues related to his savings :-) I am posting the link for the reference of those discussing the FED here.

It may look like a bit of exaggeration or even propaganda but there is something that can be picked up from what is written to understand the ever-increasing conflicts in this world.

pcleddy said...

you probably all know already, one down...,,30400-1284080,00.html

ps here's to hoping we dont lose the ability to comment from massive popularity, like marc aka marq

Anonymous said...

本土成人貼圖站大台灣情色網台灣男人幫論壇A圖網嘟嘟成人電影網火辣春夢貼圖網情色貼圖俱樂部台灣成人電影絲襪美腿樂園18美女貼圖區柔情聊天網707網愛聊天室聯盟台北69色情貼圖區38女孩情色網台灣映像館波波成人情色網站美女成人貼圖區無碼貼圖力量色妹妹性愛貼圖區日本女優貼圖網日本美少女貼圖區亞洲風暴情色貼圖網哈啦聊天室美少女自拍貼圖辣妹成人情色網台北女孩情色網辣手貼圖情色網AV無碼女優影片男女情色寫真貼圖a片天使俱樂部萍水相逢遊戲區平水相逢遊戲區免費視訊交友90739免費視訊聊天辣妹視訊 - 影音聊天網080視訊聊天室日本美女肛交美女工廠貼圖區百分百貼圖區亞洲成人電影情色網台灣本土自拍貼圖網麻辣貼圖情色網好色客成人圖片貼圖區711成人AV貼圖區台灣美女貼圖區筱萱成人論壇咪咪情色貼圖區momokoko同學會視訊kk272視訊情色文學小站成人情色貼圖區嘟嘟成人網嘟嘟情人色網 - 貼圖區免費色情a片下載台灣情色論壇成人影片分享免費視訊聊天區微風 成人 論壇kiss文學區taiwankiss文學區

Anonymous said...

2008真情寫真aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇大眾論壇plus論壇080視訊聊天室情色視訊交友90739美女交友-成人聊天室色情小說做愛成人圖片區豆豆色情聊天室080豆豆聊天室 小辣妹影音交友網台中情人聊天室桃園星願聊天室高雄網友聊天室新中台灣聊天室中部網友聊天室嘉義之光聊天室基隆海岸聊天室中壢網友聊天室南台灣聊天室南部聊坊聊天室台南不夜城聊天室南部網友聊天室屏東網友聊天室台南網友聊天室屏東聊坊聊天室雲林網友聊天室大學生BBS聊天室網路學院聊天室屏東夜語聊天室孤男寡女聊天室一網情深聊天室心靈饗宴聊天室流星花園聊天室食色男女色情聊天室真愛宣言交友聊天室情人皇朝聊天室上班族成人聊天室上班族f1影音視訊聊天室哈雷視訊聊天室080影音視訊聊天室38不夜城聊天室援交聊天室080080哈啦聊天室台北已婚聊天室已婚廣場聊天室 夢幻家族聊天室摸摸扣扣同學會聊天室520情色聊天室QQ成人交友聊天室免費視訊網愛聊天室愛情公寓免費聊天室拉子性愛聊天室柔情網友聊天室哈啦影音交友網哈啦影音視訊聊天室櫻井莉亞三點全露寫真集123上班族聊天室尋夢園上班族聊天室成人聊天室上班族080上班族聊天室6k聊天室粉紅豆豆聊天室080豆豆聊天網新豆豆聊天室080聊天室免費音樂試聽流行音樂試聽免費aa片試看免費a長片線上看色情貼影片免費a長片

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

男人幫男人幫論壇fhm男人幫fhm 男人幫台灣男人幫論壇sogo 男人幫論壇85cc男人幫論壇癡漢論壇女人色色網線上免費aaa片女人 色色網色色網色情卡通網非常好色-色色網男人女人 色色網情色交友網成人夜色情色貼片黃色恐怖小弟弟貼影片區線上a片情色典獄長天下第一色站線上免費a片網bbs小弟弟貼影片區小弟弟貼影片區 bbs免費小弟弟貼影片區小魔女 貼影片區小弟弟貼圖片區小弟弟貼a片區小弟弟 貼影片區卡通aa片線上a片線上卡通a片卡通a片小魔女免費a片小魔女卡通a片下載卡通a片觀賞卡通aa片免費看卡通 免費a片免費線上卡通a片免費下載卡通a片sex520aa免費影片免費A片線上看aa片卡通a片百分百貼影片區線上a片免費線上成人影片線上aa片免費影片線上a片尋夢園 視訊 交友聊天室aio交友 聊天室交友 聊天室免費交友聊天室視訊交友聊天室一夜情交友聊天室一葉晴交友聊天室pc 交友聊天室戀愛 交友聊天室aio 交友聊天室aa-aa片免費a片下載aa片免費看aa片免費看 a片下載aa 片免費看免費a片383成人影城-免費a片aa片免費看a片免費看aaa片免費看線上aa片免費看aa片免費看影片aa片免費線上看aa片免費下載aa片免費觀賞aa片免費看aa成人情色網 八國聯軍八國聯軍 成人情色網八國聯軍成人情色網嘟嘟成人情色網sogo成人情色網八國成人情色網洪爺成人情色網紅爺聯軍成人情色網女優成人情色網曼雪兒免費色情小說免費曼雪兒小說曼雪兒免費文章小說曼雪兒免費情色小說曼雪兒免費影片曼雪兒免費貼圖曼雪兒免費笑話曼雪兒 免費小說曼雪兒免費小說S383線上娛樂場sex383娛樂場sex383情色娛樂場sex383線上色情娛樂場sex383色情娛樂場sex383線上線上sex383娛樂場sex383免費娛樂場sex383線上影城sex383線上貼圖sex999免費影片sex999免費影片貼圖sex999免費貼圖sex999線上免費影片sex999免費影片下載sex999 免費影片sex999免費a片sex999免費影片試看SEX520免費影片觀賞SEX520 免費影片SEX520免費影片下載sex999免費下載影片sex999 免費影片嘟嘟情人色情網嘟嘟情人色色網嘟嘟情人情色網嘟嘟情人 色網嘟嘟情人 色色網嘟嘟 情人色網嘟嘟情人色網嘟嘟情人嘟嘟情人聊天室嘟嘟情人貼圖區85cc免費影城線上85cc免費影城85cc 免費影城85cc免費 影城85cc免費影片85cc免費電影85cc免費a片85cc免費aa片免費影城85cc85cc免費SEX520-免費影片SEX520免費影片觀賞線上SEX520免費影片SEX520免費影片下載SEX520免費影片sexSEX520免費影片SEX520免費 影片SEX520免費a片SEX520免費aa片SEX520免費電影一葉晴貼影片一葉晴 貼影片一葉晴貼圖片一葉晴 貼圖區一葉晴 圖片區一葉晴貼影片討論區一葉晴貼影片網站一葉晴 影片區一葉晴貼影片一葉晴貼影片區 av127aa片免費看aa片免費看影片線上aa片免費看aa片免費看短片

Anonymous said...

85cc免費影城 愛情公寓正妹牆川藏第一美女 成人影片 情色交友網 美女視訊 美女視訊 視訊情人高雄網 JP成人影城 383成人影城 aa片免費a片下載 a片線上看aa片免費看 ※a片線上試看※sex520免費影片※ aa片免費看 BT成人論壇 金瓶影片交流區 自拍美女聊天室 aa片免費a片下載 SEX520免費影片 免費a片 日本美女寫真集 sex520aa免費影片 sex520aa免費影片 BT成人網 Hotsee免費視訊交友 百分百貼影片區 SEX520免費影片 免費視訊聊天室 情人視訊高雄網 星光情色討論版 正妹牆 383成人影城 線上85cc免費影城 85cc免費影城 85cc免費影城 85cc免費影城 ※免費視訊聊天室※ ※免費視訊聊天室※ 免費視訊聊天室 85cc免費影片 85cc免費影片 080苗栗人聊天室 080苗栗人聊天室 080中部人聊天室 080中部人聊天室 免費a片下載 免費a片 AA片免費看 aa片免費看 aa片免費看 aa片免費看 aa片免費看 日本av女優影片 av女優 av女優無碼影城 av女優 av女優 百分百成人圖片 百分百成人圖片 視訊情人高雄網 電話交友 影音電話交友 絕色影城 絕色影城 夜未眠成人影城 夜未眠成人影城 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 免費色咪咪貼影片 免費色咪咪貼影片 色情遊戲 色情遊戲 色情遊戲 色情遊戲 影音視訊交友網

Anonymous said...

視訊交友網 080視訊聊天室 ※免費視訊聊天室※ ※免費視訊聊天室※ 視訊聊天室 成人影音視訊聊天室 ut影音視訊聊天室 ※免費視訊聊天室※ 視訊ukiss聊天室視訊ukiss聊天室 視訊交友90739 視訊交友90739 情人視訊網 168視訊美女 168視訊美女 168視訊美女 視訊美女館 視訊美女館 免費視訊美女網 小高聊天室 小高聊天室 aio交友聊天室 aio交友聊天室 交友聊天室 交友聊天室 線上a片 線上a片 線上a片 線上a片 線上a片 免費線上a片 免費線上a片 嘟嘟成人網站 成人漫畫 情色文學 嘟嘟成人網 成人貼圖區 情色文學成人小說 微風成人區 情色貼圖區 免費視訊聊天 免費成人圖片區 愛情公寓 愛情公寓聊天室 寄情築園小遊戲 免費aa片線上看 aa片免費看 情色SXE聊天室 SEX情色遊戲 色情A片 免費下載 av女優 俱樂部 情色論壇 辣妹視訊 情色貼圖網 免費色情 聊天室 情人視訊聊天室 免費a片成人影城 免費a片-aa片免費看 0204貼圖區 SEX情色 交友聊天-線上免費 女優天堂 成人交友網 成人情色貼圖區 18禁 -女優王國 080視訊美女聊天室 080視訊聊天室 視訊交友90739 免費a片 aio 視訊交友網 成人影城-免費a片※免費視訊聊天※85cc免費影片日本線上免費a片 免費色咪咪影片免費色咪咪影片aaa片免費看影片aaa片免費看成人影城情人視訊高雄網sex520免費影片080聊天室080聊天室aa的滿18歲影片免費av18禁影片免費av18禁影片免費av18禁影片aa的滿18歲影片聊天室ut愛情公寓尋夢園聊天室

Anonymous said...

情色 視訊免費成人
線上 aa 片試看,成人 視訊
xxxpanda com
xxx movie
xx18 net影片交流區
hi5 tv免費影片
xxxpanda com
xvediox com
免費a片卡通,travian tw4
sexy girl video movie
xx18 net影片交流區
av969 免費短片
168 視訊聊天
線上 aa 片試看嘟嘟,免費線上a電影
日本 a 片,無碼影片,美女,sexy,a片天堂
免費 a片,sogo 色論壇
色美眉部落格 2,視訊主播脫衣秀
av 女優,黑色會美眉
av 女優,黑色會美眉
免費 aa 片試看,成人影片分享
無碼av女優, 色美眉部落格 2
無碼av女優, 色美眉部落格 2
倉井空免費影片,情趣 商品,視訊 美女
免費 a 長片線上看,黑澀會美眉無名,辣妹no3
080色情聊天室 080尋夢園

Anonymous said...

免費 a 片
免費線上 aa 片試看85CC
視訊辣妹girl5320 貼片貼圖區
本土自拍影片qq 美美色網漫畫
小護士免費 aa 片試看
雪之深戀 080聊天網水之浪漫
高中生援交偷拍自拍限制級色情 片
aa 片試看免費卡通
a片天堂日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞
sex520 net情趣 商品
視訊聊天情色sex888 freebbs hk
a片免費觀賞sexy girls get fucked
免費 aa 片試看情色文學
av 女優 卡通美女短片免費試看
383成人視訊 美女
卡通aa片hilive tv 免費電影天堂
34c無碼影片情色 網站
成人情色 視訊21sex
情人輔助品日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞
sexy girl比基尼美女
月宮貼圖情趣 商品
援交女sex movie免費 a 片
一葉情貼圖片區 av127
一本道 a片 東京熱情色影片

Anonymous said...

85cc免費影城85cc免費影片免費 a 片台灣論壇免費影片線上免費a片觀看85cc免費影片線上觀賞a片免費看免費A片A片-sex女優王國免費卡通影片線上觀看小魔女免費影城免費看 aa的滿18歲影片免費a片卡通sex888影片分享區520sex貼片區sex520免費影片免費色咪咪影片網免費影片下載aaaaaa片俱樂部成人a影片論壇aaa片免費看短片後宮0204movie免費影片gogo2sex馬子免費影片免費線上a片aaa片免費看短片sex888免費看影片免費 a 片aaa的滿18歲卡通影片免費線上avdvdaaaa彩虹頻道免費影片sexdiy影城aaaa 片俱樂部sex520免費影片85cc成人影城洪爺影城免費線上歐美A片觀看彩虹頻道免費影片免費卡通影片線上觀看臺灣情色網線上免費a長片浪漫月光論壇 sex383線上娛樂場dudu sex免費影片 杜蕾斯成人bbs x693 com sex888sogo 成人論壇plus論壇sex520免費影片sex999日本美女寫真集sex888 freebbs hk85cc免費影片微風成人av論壇亞洲免費影片線上直播日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞視訊情色遊戲sexdiy影城免費成人視訊一本道 a片 東京熱情色影片免費影片下載asex888免費看影片論壇sex888movie影城情色小說本土辣妹34c影片直播吉澤明步免費a片av080免費試看免費aa片試看sex888 freebbs hk卡通美女a片免費試看aa的滿18歲影片a 免費影片觀賞aaa免費看影片aaaaa片俱樂部影片5278論壇免費影片觀賞av博物館sex383線上娛樂場日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞avdvd無碼情色電影sexy girl video movie亞洲禁果影城卡通aa片免費看383movie成人影城ut13077視訊聊天aio性愛dvd辣妹影片直播金瓶影片交流區免費a片卡通hilive tv 免費電影彩虹頻道免費短片台南援交友留言彩虹頻道免費短片aio交友愛情館a 免費影片觀賞