What is being predicted as rare events by the models are daily occurences.
All the melodramatic talk of the lowest-ever consumer-confidence reading, the greatest increase in the money supply and the highest sustained market-volatility levels in the annals of markets is spreading numbness.
The clustering of so many once-rare "90% days" -- when 90% of stocks and trading volume move in one direction -- has muted the commentary on them. When the Dow industrials jumped 6.7% Thursday after erasing steep losses, it was their largest one-day jump since...Oct. 28. So maybe it's telling that the morning after this huge gain (and 11% intraday reversal), the market story made neither page A1 of The Wall Street Journal nor the front page of the New York Times business section.
The world has changed, the models are virgin once more. Hacker quants are going to be in demand for a long time. A quant will build a model and test its assumptions with existing data. But where no historical data exists, no validation has been made, or no model covers it. It is a new configuration.