Macro think: Demography
The thing I keep trying to interpret is the fact that growth in the equity markets seems to have behaved linearly. A linear growth is normal for large bodies. Exponential growth is expected for small bodies, linear is recommended for mature economies.
In the very long run, growth that is infinite doesn't mean anything. Growth has to stop somewhere, at the optimal exploitation of produced and existing/renewable resources. In the meantime it seems to be a factor of demography.
If a human being can produce X then the GDP is X times N the number of people in the economy and the GDP, at X constant grows with demography.
Lately we have been seeing fake growth coming from monetary levels. Growth in this case was nothing more than INFLATION. We have been living in a era of hyper-inflation (95-now) via asset bubbles. We have been conditioned to think about inflation in terms of CPI, which is misleading. Inflation of assets, increases the gap between haves and have nots. That's it. Nothing more. Do you remember the day you realized you could not afford a house as a first time buyer? I do. That is what I am talking about.
Growth has to be growth of production, growth of monetary mass, is NOT growth. Demography is the real mass that grows and it's growth could very well be slightly under linear with efficiency helping out a bit.
Growth for the sake of growth is an ideology.
In the very long run, growth that is infinite doesn't mean anything. Growth has to stop somewhere, at the optimal exploitation of produced and existing/renewable resources. In the meantime it seems to be a factor of demography.
If a human being can produce X then the GDP is X times N the number of people in the economy and the GDP, at X constant grows with demography.
Lately we have been seeing fake growth coming from monetary levels. Growth in this case was nothing more than INFLATION. We have been living in a era of hyper-inflation (95-now) via asset bubbles. We have been conditioned to think about inflation in terms of CPI, which is misleading. Inflation of assets, increases the gap between haves and have nots. That's it. Nothing more. Do you remember the day you realized you could not afford a house as a first time buyer? I do. That is what I am talking about.
Growth has to be growth of production, growth of monetary mass, is NOT growth. Demography is the real mass that grows and it's growth could very well be slightly under linear with efficiency helping out a bit.
Growth for the sake of growth is an ideology.
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