UBS and the mother of all write-downs

As Sacha pointed out via comments, this is no time to sleep at the wheel. UBS is the latest casualty in the line of banks that is now in the spotlights as it announces significant write-downs and its CEO resigns.

Oddly enough the markets, who really want to cheer, are cheering this latest bout of horrible news as a reason to rally. You know you are in dire straights, when even news of imploding systems are a reason to cheer. They expect this is the Nadir. The bad news are now reflected in the numbers of, the futures are priced in, bla bla bla. Voila! Hop! Crisis over!

Leading bankers are quick to caution against premature celebration. This is merely an additional $20 on top of 120 looking for 250. Great $20 down $130B to go. Yay!

Technical analysis categorizes "Cheer on bad news" as "STRONG BULL". Others talk more calmly about BEAR MARKET RALLY.

In clear again, no one really knows. Odds are still split, although we are seeing a sentiment rally. In the mean-time what is sure is that there is volatility to trade. I am SELLING volatility.

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April 12, 2009 at 10:40:00 AM PDT
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