BEA and Oracle: The Bull Shit round
You read it here first (numbers on BEA and Oracle), BEA is easily worth $21 for Oracle.
You also read it here second, there would be no other bidder than Oracle on BEA.
So BEA came out on thursday asking $21 from Oracle and Oracle answered "there is no other bidder" for BEA so the offer still is $17 and, btw, it expires Sunday.
There has been no net new progress. The negotiation are done and in that twillight zone I call the "bullshit talk-zone", where each one has stated its case and knows the other parties case is as solid as theirs.
Since there is no valuation mismatch logic would state the deal will get done by Sunday. I beleive it will probably be closer to $17 than $21 since Oracle has the upper hand. Oracle can afford to pass on BEA. BEA cannot afford to pass on this deal.
This is done. For those in the know: Project Game Over will soon reach completion. For me personally it will be the end of an era.
You also read it here second, there would be no other bidder than Oracle on BEA.
So BEA came out on thursday asking $21 from Oracle and Oracle answered "there is no other bidder" for BEA so the offer still is $17 and, btw, it expires Sunday.
There has been no net new progress. The negotiation are done and in that twillight zone I call the "bullshit talk-zone", where each one has stated its case and knows the other parties case is as solid as theirs.
Since there is no valuation mismatch logic would state the deal will get done by Sunday. I beleive it will probably be closer to $17 than $21 since Oracle has the upper hand. Oracle can afford to pass on BEA. BEA cannot afford to pass on this deal.
This is done. For those in the know: Project Game Over will soon reach completion. For me personally it will be the end of an era.
Comments
agreed, it will be a bit of an end for me, as well, as I was fighting internally at Sun against WebLogic interests for years...
I couldn't blame the poor Sun GSO reps. who had no choice but to ditch iPlanet and go with BEA for their customer deployments that were so much a part of the dot-com lunacy...
But now that Glassfish in the form of SJS AS 9.1 is a contender and a real alternative, BEA has no choice but to find a home...can we just agree that this is a $19/share deal, and be done with an era?...
it looks like it is all but done, ironically, the 10/28/07 date is exactly 5 years to the day after we righted the Sun software ship with Sun ONE AS 7, so I think when WebLogic is firmly in the grasp of Larry, perhaps both of us can accept appreciation from Chuck Phillips for keeping the price down...
Well it is monday and the offer has expired... the bullshit round is a dangerous and volatile round.
Butterfly flaps its wings in the Congo. IBM executive sneezes - buying Geronimo. RHT buys JBoss. Oracle mimics RHT-Linux. Oracle buys BEA.
The credit goes to the butterfly.
Got 2 spread the worth, and u r part of the campaign to give back $'s to IT by cutting middleware spend, not sure how that works out for anyone that is not a systems vendor, or at least tier 1, so as we have been talking, its a matter of time...
for their sake, i hope BEA gets their $20/share, though momentum is not on their side, they r worth it...I was perusing ORCL's site today, and am basically disgusted with their app server positioning, including their 'Java Edition', is that all it will be 4 WebLogic?
Fusion is another way of saying comprehensive for Oracle people, and proprietary for everyone else...they need to make this acquisition happen...
I agree, they need to do this, Larry *needs* a better MW story and the other dumbass *needs* to sell.
They should take the deal at 17 just like oracle should pay 21 for this puppy. That is the "need" on both sides.
But deals are non rational and people will do pretty dumb stuff in the bullshit round.