Friday, May 11, 2007

Microsoft's long demise

I belatedly discovered, albeit with great interest, the writings of Paul Graham.

For those of you who don't know the guy, I highly recommend you take 2 hours one day and go and read some of his essays. He apparently wrote the seminal book on LISP, founded and sold an early internet company called Viaweb and more recently is the dynamo behind "ycombinator" a modern version of the incubators of yesteryear.

I mostly recommend reading the guy because he has a pulse on the "geek zeitgeist". I believe he correctly represents a large portion of what geeks think. Some of it is right, some of it wrong. In 2003, he wrote, a wonderful entry called "why nerds are unpopular" which is a must read for every geek in America. It completely captures "geek angst" I witness in teens in America. He is full of hope and optimism.

Paul Graham has recently caused a bit of a stir by writing a hugely popular entry called "why Microsoft is dead". His thesis is not so much that MSFT is dead, in spite of the attention catching title, rather he argues that MSFT is not feared as it used to be.

He argues that the internet, AJAX/RIA, apple, and google are the main reasons for MSFT dismissal. I thought about this for awhile. While I agree with the real conclusion, namely that MSFT is not as feared as it used to be, I mostly disagree with the reasons he states.

Missed Java and Linux.
At the top of my gripe list, he misses both Java and Linux, and the combination of the two as one of the major reasons for MSFT's failed attempt to conquer the world of the web.

See, portability was always what Java promised, and delivered. From the beginning we java puppies were insulated from Operating Systems, we just didn't care. Whether that platform was Windows or Solaris or Linux or AIX or Mainframe or Mac was truly a secondary concern for the java guys.

In a sense, I believe that Linux and java have robbed MSFT of growth on the server side. In the mid-90's we were all shaking in our boots that MSFT was going to eat everyone's lunch on the server side and that NT was a juggernaut no one could stop. How things come to pass! Linux came along and put a definitive end to that.

Server side linux is a huge success story if anything because it stopped MSFT in its "tracks of inevitability". Java was a coup de grace and it freed legions of corporate developers. Java on Linux means a lot of corporate apps work as is on Linux. The rest was history. We never looked back and certainly didn't see windows as an evil not even really a factor, just as a vehicle of distribution for java technology.

New markets out of bullying reach.
In thinking about the reasons Paul Graham invokes, I find myself agreeing with the internet one, of course, but not for the same reasons. I believe many of the new markets that emerged because of the internet (e-commerce, search, portal, software distribution, social networks, peer to peer) were mostly immune to MSFT attacks.

The main reasons is that unlike their PC equivalent the web and internet applications:

1- do not care what OS you use
2- are not bundled with a PC

In other words, MSFT couldn't leverage their client OS monopoly to bully distribution. It bullied distribution with IE and that was the end of that. From there on it was freedom.

Google, sure, but.
Google is certainly a reason why MSFT cannot come to dominate the early web products (search, SaaS office apps), but Google robbed MSFT of web-products related growth more than it is threatening its core franchise. I mean in the same sense that Linux robbed MSFT of Windows growth on the server more than it came to threaten windows on the client.

The Windows franchise is certainly NOT under threat, not by the likes of Google despite all of the excited noise on WallStreet. Google doesn't deal in OS. Until they do, it is not an argument. Even if it did I would argue that it would be a long hardous road for them. Maybe if they bought Ubuntu... mmmm, maybe.

The Office apps? sure... but not yet. I use Google apps, I love it, but seriously.

Mac? don't make me laugh
The argument Paul makes that Apple's MAC-OSX contributed to the supposed demise of MSFT is just laughable. MacOSX still shows up with a paltry 4%. Oh and please don't come with the Gandhi quote, it is not because people ignore you or laugh at you that you inevitably win. Doesn't work that way most of the time.

I love the "I am a Mac, I am a PC" commercials as much as the next geek, they have a funny bone about them. But lately I am starting to suspect that these commercials maybe generating a backlash. Think about it, who IS the funny guy, who do you feel bad for? In other words you do you emotionally respond to? the smug mac kid or the PC guy? I like the PC guy, and he is a regular on "the Daily Show".

Stateful conversations as RIA enabler.
I hate to bash Paul on this one but I believe he is just trying to sound technically deep, and misses the target. Paul invokes the "HTTPSession" objects as an enabler of rich applications and one of the reasons MSFT is being humbled. He must have heard that in a VC meeting from a kid developping a web2.0 app, remembered he didn't have such an object in LISP and thought "wow, cool". Ah, what a curse it is to lose one's technical edge :)

Java had "HTTPSessionContext" objects since the late 90's. Second these developments reflect the progression of modern OO language to catch up and provide stateful conversations for applications over HTTP. You can really view this as a "half empty glass". Further proof is that these technologies are still under development (SEAM with webbeans is but an example).

In other words, while RIA/Web 2.0 rich applications are a potential future threat to desktop applications, the technical story is still unfolding, largely undecided and therefore cannot account for MSFT's humbling in the past. BTW, the topic of whether web apps will replace desktop apps, at all, is still hotly debated by geeks.

In MSFT's defense
Despite widespread belief to the contrary, there is a lot of innovation to come out of MSFT. A lot of basic research too. MSFT bashing was, still is popular in certain development circles. I get annoyed at the persistent myth, widely believed in OSS circles, that MSFT doesn't innovate.

You have to admire a company that has basically told Wall Street to "fcuk off" with its short term greed. I remember vividly a Wall Street investor commenting privately about how pissed off they were that MSFT just ignored demands by Wall Street in general to reduce their R/D, that they not invest and show margin expansion. There is an agenda of innovation a culture of R&D and corporate will and spine to keep the Wall Street greedier elements at bay, go them!

One thing that causes me more alarm, is that I see a lot of startups using MSFT technology these days. See, startups give you early warnings on trends of what people use. Something is going here. Startups are the early warning signs of on-coming floods.

Finally, I love my XBox 360 with billg's signature on it.

As the French used to say "The kind is dead, long live the king!"

marcf

19 comments:

FiggyTreats said...

My comments are not a PC vs. Mac argument as much as they are in support of quality over quantity. Just want to make that clear right now. Please read on...

"I like the PC guy, and he is a regular on "the Daily Show"

Well, sorry to burst your bubble but he's a long-time Mac user and author.

Percentages (like the 4% marketshare thing) only mean that 96% of users are still stuck. Sure, Microsoft WAS great and changed our lives, which is really awesome. But now they are indeed dying a slow death because of stagnation.

I mean, when it comes to just one product like IE 6, which was released to the public as a broken product, imagine as a company trying to support that product during the years after release to accomodate a zillion different human languages, multiple Windows OS's and all the plug-ins, etc, etc, etc that go with it! It's unmanageable. While I want to give them credit for trying, its very hard to do so since they blatantly ignore established standards in the developer community, NOT fix their broken-ass browser and continue to act like a 900 pound gorilla.

Had they focused on quality rather than quantity they would not have this problem now. Regardless of how you feel about Apple and Macs, this is the reason Macs work and cost more money - the focus is on quality, not quantity.

/L said...

Hi Marc!

As always it is great to read your blogs.

Just have to correct you on one point - mac user as I am :). Apple have now a marketshare on 7.7 % of the desktop or 9.9 % looking only to laptops. Maybe time to stop laughing at Macs ;)

Even Sun starts to realize that we can't ignore the Mac camp anymore.

Anyway - nice to hear your words. I do miss you in the JBoss Land !

/Lennart

marcf said...

Thanks for setting some of the my facts straight. I didn't realize the marketshare for mac on laptops we 10% and that my favorite PCvsMac character was in fact a mac user.

I won't ignore, I won't laugh, I will just stay quiet and ... wait.

What would Marc Fleury do? sit tight and wait in silence.

When the market share gets to 20%, please send me a message. I will start reconsidering at that point as a threat to MSFT in the future.

But, hey, keep the faith, you won't see me throwing a stone at techno faith and fetichisme, it's a french thing.

May Moore be with you

marcf

/L said...

Hey - I really hope that they never gets to 20 % and starts to be thought of as a MSFT threat.

That would be the day that Mac turns grey and dull as the rest. I want them to be something special :)

/L

marcf said...

There was a great thread recently on slashdot about why MSFT didn't have a "cult" following.

To your point lennart, many folks think the underdog motivation is what creates cults and that from cults your graduate to religion when you become mainstream.

JBoss was a cult. Today it is a corporate religion, not that it is bad thing, au contraire. It still relies on the energy and belief of the evangelists like you and I. But the phenomena of "inertia" kicks in and complements the efforts of evangelists, it is the traditional "snowball" downhill effect, gravity/inertia works for you.

I miss the JBoss days like you can't imagine. It was a very personal thing, for me, as you know. But in a sense I was really proud to see a picture of the java one pavillion being mobbed. At some point your baby has to walk by himself and grow up. Keeping it in 'infant' stage is not good either, no matter how fun the early infant years are. An 8 years old won't be 8 for ever and that is the way it is, that is the way you want it.

marcf said...

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/07/05/11/apple_snags_10_percent_of_u_s_retail_notebook_sales_in_march.html#

10% indeed! (it excludes Dell, but Dell's are freaking ugly). I didn't see the SONY numbers?

marcf said...

Trying again, 10% market share

Roy Russo said...

Dell's are ugly? Some of us want powerful YET affordable machines.

I recently priced out comparable Dell and Apple laptops... then I realized a/ I don't own any Apple stock, and b/ I don't want to have to pay for Steve Jobs SEC litigation, so I went with the Dell. ;-)

Andrew C. Oliver said...

You left off Gates's philanthropy and how he's single handedly helping fix the goodwill business. For my charity I look at what Gates is doing as I know I won't be funding some mere latte liberalism talk shop, but making a real difference. I respect billg for this more than anything, in the end he ruthlessly built a mountain of money that he's putting forth to fix the real problems of the world. In the end when you look at the clowns at the top and who really has a legacy and who really left their mark on the world it won't be based on how much money they made company X in a quarter (already forgotten) or how many cars they own, but how many kids aren't orphaned or dead because of them.

-Andy

marcf said...

You are right, I think a lot about that philanthropy and I just forgot to talk about it. I actually have been meaning to write an entry on the opposite re: one laptop per child. nuff said for now.
Roy, philanthropy is when you have made a lot of money and you want to give some of it away for the good of manki... ah forget it. Under that ruff exterior, I think one day you will grasp the second part of the sentence above and be a great philanthropist.

Ryan said...

I worked as a developer at Microsoft in the SQL server group recently. There is so much going on there that the public never hears about. There are a ton of internal "startups". With that being said, I do agree with Paul Graham. What is funny is most of the MSFT management would probably also agree with what Paul Graham was saying. He wasn't really saying the MSFT is dead, just that they aren't a threat to startups with innovative products.

As a group we were very focused on the umpteen billion dollar markets out there and not so much on emerging technologies. The innovation we were focused on is more features and less bugs for less dollars. So far it seems to be working for the bottom line.

Of course this is frustrating for developers because we wanted to work on new and exciting stuff so there was a lot of grumbling about innovation internally when I was there.

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